Genetic risk scores not useful in predicting disease

decorative Polygenic risk scores, which estimate a person's disease risk based on thousands or millions of common genetic variants, perform poorly in screening and prediction of common diseases such as heart disease, according to a new study led by UCL researchers. It has been claimed that polygenic risk scores will transform the prediction and prevention of common diseases. Companies have already been established that sell polygenic risk score testing services. Polygenic risk score testing is also one of the aims of the nationwide Our Future Health project*. The new study, published in BMJ Medicine , looked at 926 polygenic risk scores for 310 diseases. It found that, on average, only 11% of individuals who develop disease are identified, while at the same time 5% of people who do not develop the disease test positive. Unaffected people usually outnumber those affected which results in far more false than true positive predictions.