COVID-19: Online tool identifies patients at highest risk of deterioration

A new risk-stratification tool which can accurately predict the likelihood of deterioration in adults hospitalised with COVID-19 has been developed by UCL researchers, in collaboration with the UK Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (known as ISARIC4C). Researchers say the online tool, made freely available to NHS doctors on Friday 8 January 2021, could support clinicians' decision making - helping to improve patient outcomes and ultimately save lives. The tool assesses 11 measurements* routinely collected from patients, including age, gender, and physical measurements (such as oxygen levels) along with some standard laboratory tests and calculates a percentage risk of deterioration, known as the '4C Deterioration Score'. This innovation, due to be published in  The   Lancet Respiratory Medicine , builds on the Consortium's previous work developing the '4C Mortality Score' to predict the percentage risk of death from COVID-19 after admission to hospital. The '4C Mortality Score' is already recommended for use by NHS England** to guide anti-viral treatments (Remdesivir). Doctors will now see both the '4C Deterioration Score' and the '4C Mortality Score' at the same time, using the same tool. Co-senior and corresponding author, Professor Mahdad Noursadeghi (UCL Infection & Immunity), said: "Accurate risk-stratification at the point of admission to hospital will give doctors greater confidence about clinical decisions and planning ahead for the needs of individual patients.