Urgent testing, tracing, and isolation could save lives and economy

Population-wide testing, contact tracing, and isolation (PTTI) in the UK could save 50,000 lives and £700bn of GDP over the next two years, finds research co-led by UCL, University of Edinburgh and University of Haifa. The non-peer reviewed, pre-print study uses mathematical and economical models to investigate 31 scenarios for tackling COVID-19 in the UK o ver the next two years to estimate the impact, costs, feasibility, and health and economic effects of different strategies. I t shows that a scenario combin ing targeted testing of symptomatic people in the UK, tracing and isolation of their cont acts, and widespread use of face coverings can suppress the epidemic, minimise related deaths (to an estimated total of 52,000 - roughly half the total deaths expected without PTTI), and would have the lowest intervention costs (£8bn). The short additional lockdown required to enable the nationwide implementation of this policy would result in a total reduction in GDP of around £50 0 bn since the cris is started. Without PTTI, the UK would lose an estimated £1.2 trillion of GDP, and 105,000 lives. The length of the additional lockdown will depend on the number of contacts per day. If contacts per day do not increase, this could be a matter of weeks.