Opinion: When should we lift the coronavirus lockdown?

Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths (UCL Epidemiology & Health) comments on UK lockdown procedures, the possibility of a second wave and when the lockdown might ease. The world is watching closely following the lifting of the public lockdown in the city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus pandemic started. The metropolitan-wide quarantine was in place for 76 days since January 23, and restrictions were seemingly effective, with the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly reduced from 1,500-2,000 at the peak to 10 cases or fewer a day now. Meanwhile, those of us in or heading towards our second month of lockdown are starting to wonder when it will be our turn to lift or relax restrictions. This is especially true for countries where the spread of the virus, related hospitalisations and deaths are showing signs of slowing down. The lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan followed a gradual easing of the restrictions by allowing residents to leave their residences on a limited basis. But importantly, this was combined with a massive screening programme to test people at high risk from the disease or anyone who had been in close contact with infected patients. This enabled authorities to contain the infection and reduce the number of cases by 90%. Similarly, lifting the lockdown in other countries will depend on their ability to contain the virus and protect the public once restrictions have gone. To asses this and decide when to end the lockdown, we need to answer three questions. First, have we suppressed the spread of the virus enough so that it won't produce a second surging wave of infections and deaths in the future?