New model predicts when people are willing to try new things

A new model to predict when people are most likely to try different products has been developed by scientists at UCL and dunnhumby, a customer science company. The research could help to direct public health interventions aimed at encouraging healthier choices. The team analysed anonymous purchase data from over 280,000 shoppers who regularly bought products in six categories: beers, breads, coffees, toilet papers, washing detergents and yogurts. Individual shoppers were represented only by anonymous dataset numbers with no personal or identifiable information. "We developed a model to predict when somebody is ready to try a new product, such as switching from one brand to another," says Professor Brad Love (UCL Psychology and The Alan Turing Institute), senior author of the study. "Our model shows that the more people purchase a product, the more likely they are to continue to do so, until they reset the cycle by exploring a new product. To test our theory in the real world, we sent coupons to thousands of people and used the model to predict who would use them.