Campi Flegrei volcano eruption possibly closer than thought

The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy may be closer to an eruption than previously thought, according to new research by UCL and the Vesuvius Observatory in Naples. The volcano has been restless for 67 years, with two-year periods of unrest in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s causing small, local earthquakes and ground uplift. Similar unrest occurred over 500 years ago, when it took a century to build up to an eruption in 1538. The authors of the study, published today , used a new model of volcano fracturing developed at UCL to investigate whether Campi Flegrei may again be preparing to erupt. They found that the unrest since the 1950s has had a cumulative effect, causing a build-up of energy in the crust and making the volcano more susceptible to eruption. Previously, it was generally thought that the energy needed to stretch the crust was eventually lost after each period of unrest. 'By studying how the ground is cracking and moving at Campi Flegrei, we think it may be approaching a critical stage where further unrest will increase the possibility of an eruption, and it's imperative that the authorities are prepared for this,' explained Dr Christopher Kilburn, Director of the UCL Hazard Centre.