Arctic rain may soon be more common than snowfall

reindeer in Svalbard - More rain than snow will fall in the Arctic and this transition will occur decades earlier than previously predicted, a new study involving UCL researchers has found. Projections from the latest models show a steep increase in the rate and range of precipitation expected to fall in the Arctic, and that most of these future events will be rain. This shift is occurring due to rapid warming, sea ice loss, and poleward heat transport in the Arctic. This transition to a rain-dominated era in the Arctic is forecasted to commence at different times depending on the season and region. In autumn, for instance, these new models predict the shift to occur between 2050 to 2080, whereas the old models predicted this to occur between 2070 to 2090. Co-author Professor Julienne Stroeve (UCL Earth Sciences and the University of Colorado Boulder) said: "As the Arctic continues to warm in response to atmospheric greenhouse gases it is not surprising that the precipitation will start to transition from snow to rain. The worry is that it may happen sooner than we expected, with wide-ranging consequences." The paper, "New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected," warns that reduced snow cover will further exacerbate Arctic and global warming through albedo feedbacks, increased winter CO2 fluxes, methane releases from soil, and thawing permafrost.