Analysis: Rising sea levels could leave millions at risk by 2100

Ilan Kelman (UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction) joins experts in examining 33 studies of how rising sea levels will affect migration patterns, 'trapped populations' and call for policymakers to institute measures to protect residents living in high-risk areas. An article in 2011 shocked many by suggesting that up to 187 million people could be forced to leave their homes as a result of two metres of sea level rise by 2100. Almost a decade on, some of the latest estimates suggest that as many as 630 million people may live on land below projected annual flood levels by the end of the century. The idea that rising seas will force millions to move, unleashing a refugee crisis like no other, has now become commonplace. It's a narrative that the media are fond of, but that does not mean it is based on evidence. The potential scale of sea level rise is becoming clearer, but this does not necessarily translate into population movements. Everything we have learned so far suggests that decisions to migrate are far more complex than a simple flight response.