Weather forecast model predicts complex patterns of volcanic ash dispersal
New research, led by the University of Bristol, has provided fresh insight into how huge volcanic ash plumes, which can critically disrupt aviation and cause major impact on the ground, are transported in the atmosphere. In 2010, the eruption of the Icelandic volcano EyjafjallajÓ§kull caused widespread travel chaos, with the cancellation of more than 100,000 flights and economic losses of $200 million per day. By using high-resolution meteorological modelling of volcanic eruptions on the Caribbean island of St Vincent, the research, published today in the journal Scientific Reports , aims to improve how we respond to explosive volcanic eruptions, and better forecast volcanic ash dispersal. An international team of researchers from institutions including the Universities of Bristol, East Anglia, Oxford, Kyoto, Earth Observatory Singapore and the West Indies has shown how it is the interaction of the dynamics of the atmosphere with volcanic plumes that produces the complex patterns of ash transport which threaten aviation and cause impacts on the ground. The team used a combination of high-resolution meteorological modelling, archives of historical observations of eruptions, and field measurements of ash deposits, to reconstruct two eruptions of Soufrière St Vincent, an island volcano in the Caribbean. The island topography, steady trade wind patterns, and very detailed archives of historical eyewitness accounts and field measurements for eruptions in 1902 and 1979 made St Vincent an ideal location for the study.
