Study of wolves will help scientists predict climate effects on endangered animals

Scientists studying populations of gray wolves in the USA's Yellowstone National Park have developed a way to predict how changes in the environment will impact on the animals' number, body size and genetics, amongst other biological traits. Writing in the journal Science , the researchers say they now have a way to predict the extent to which climate change could simultaneously impact animal numbers and the ways in which animals are likely to evolve. The results could now be used by other groups to predict how future wolf populations will respond to climate change and to inform the actions of conservationists. This study provides a powerful mathematical model to explore the links between environmental change, changes in population size and simultaneous recent rapid physical changes, such as the shrinkage that has been seen in animals like polar bears and Soay sheep. The research was led by Imperial College London and involved colleagues at the United States Department of the Interior , Utah State University and the University of California. Previous studies have shown that, if they persist over a long period, even small changes in traits like body size and weight - as well as other characteristics such as coat colour, age at reproduction and average life span - can have a profound effect on a species' future population size. But until now, scientists have not had the tools to predict what these effects would be.