Our ability to model past climates does not guarantee future success

New research from the University of Leeds shows that past trends in climate must be very carefully understood before using them to model the future. Climate scientists found that models are generally good at seeing past trends - but that there are important differences that must be recognised when predicting future climate patterns. Researchers looked at these climate models to examine their trends in the Arctic and the Tropics, and found that eight of the 11 models studied did a reasonable job of reproducing these trends. However, most models could not reproduce the 1920-1940 warming particularly in the tropics, and additionally the researchers found that the models often got similar trends for different reasons. Ms Julia Crook, who led the study, said: "Models reproduced the Arctic and tropical warming from a combination of forcings (e.g. carbon dioxide and particulate changes), feedback mechanisms (e.g. ice melt) and transport of heat in weather and ocean currents.