Risk of volcano catastrophe ’a roll of the dice’, say experts

Mount Rinjani in Indonesia, which had one of the largest eruptions in the last millennium in 1257 (magnitude 7). Credit: Dr Mike Cassidy While funding is pumped into preventing low-probability scenarios such as asteroid collision, the far more likely threat of a large volcanic eruption is close to ignored - despite much that could be done to reduce the risks, say researchers. The risks of a massive eruption that devastates global society is significant Lara Mani The world is -woefully underprepared- for a massive volcanic eruption and the likely repercussions on global supply chains, climate and food, according to experts from the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER). In an article published in the journal Nature , they say there is a -broad misconception- that risks of major eruptions are low, and describe current lack of governmental investment in monitoring and responding to potential volcano disasters as -reckless-. However, the researchers argue that steps can be taken to protect against volcanic devastation - from improved surveillance to increased public education and magma manipulation - and the resources needed to do so are long overdue. -Data gathered from ice cores on the frequency of eruptions over deep time suggests there is a one-in-six chance of a magnitude seven explosion in the next one hundred years. That's a roll of the dice,- said article co-author and CSER researcher Dr Lara Mani, an expert in global risk.