Research has implications for forecasting geological disaster

Research by the University of Liverpool will contribute to the next generation of tools for forecasting geological disasters, including volcanic eruptions. Geoscientists from the University's School of Environmental Sciences were able to define the primary control on the accuracy of forecasting the failure of materials - which leads to a disaster - by studying magma involved in explosive eruptions. The researchers demonstrated that increased porosity (the amount of gas-filled bubbles) in magma was a key element to improve our ability to forecast the failure of magma - failure that in nature would have potentially resulted in a catastrophic explosions. Catastrophic disasters Material failure through the opening of fractures has played an important role in a wide range of geological and anthropogenic disasters. For example, a volcanic eruption requires the opening of a fracture for magma to reach the Earth surface. Similarly, landslides, earthquakes or even the collapse of bridges and buildings require the propagation of fractures in materials before movement takes place. Studies of material failure and catastrophic disasters have shown that these events are often preceded by acceleration in signals, such as seismicity, which can be monitored with today's technology.