Clouds dominate uncertainties in predicting future Greenland melt

New research led by climate scientists from the University of Bristol suggests that the representation of clouds in climate models is as, or more, important than the amount of greenhouse gas emissions when it comes to projecting future Greenland ice sheet melt. Recent research shows that the whole of the Greenland ice sheet could be gone within the next thousand years, raising global sea level by more than seven metres. However, most of the predictions about the future of the Greenland ice sheet focus on the impact of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios on its evolution and sea level commitment. New research published today , shows that in a warming world, cloud microphysics play as an important role as greenhouse gases and, for high emission scenarios, dominate the uncertainties in projecting the future melting of the ice sheet. The difference in potential melt caused by clouds, mainly stems from their ability to control the longwave radiation at the surface of the ice sheet. They act like a blanket. The highest melt simulation has the thickest blanket (thickest clouds) with strongest warming at the surface which leads to two times more melt.